Monday, 8 August 2016

US job numbers continue to grow as economy appears weaker

A closely watched gauge of economic performance often associated with the prospects of economic strength or weakness is the US non-farm payrolls that's captured much attention since overtaking a previous record set for the longest consecutive jobs gained in the labour force which last occurred in the late 1980's.

The current reading continues to surpass it's prior record by an ever increasing number of months as time passes leaving many analysts and commentators baffled at the sheer consistency of the measure over the past five years in contrast to the stagnancy of the United States economy.

One would've thought the paradoxical thought which refuses to acknowledge the direct relationship between employment growth translating into economic value might have raised the alarm bells for policymakers who continually believe the farcical numbers they broadcast.  

You sense the irony in US indices breaking into higher territory off the back of this measure when the steadiness of trend in economic growth is hardly explicit.

The most probable cause for a spike in optimism relates to a lower than expected number US Federal Reserve officials would be satisfied with in its restless progression of rate hikes or even yet the possibility of rescinding it's barely formative strategy of normalisation under the pressure of following its peers in other developed economies of driving interest rates lower than zero.

Strange as it may sound, the Fed's doubt that 70 consecutive months of job gains isn't enough to be comfortable the economy is capable of handling another interest rate hike eludes to either a lack of confidence in the measure itself or quite simply using it as propaganda feed to abate the feeling of nervousness amongst the investment community. A frightening thought to ponder over considering it's stimulating nature of financial markets...

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