Monday 26 January 2015

Lessons We Can Learn From The Swiss Franc Debacle

As the dust begins to settle around the Swiss Franc revaluation saga and normality starts making it's way through the confusion, many questions are being raised around the stringency of the regulations regarding the amount of leverage a broker may offer traders which in this case has left many Forex brokers reeling in shock as millions of dollars in losses have been incurred as a result of a lapse judgement or simply pure greed.

Being an astute student of the market, events such as these do highlight the real risks of trading in the fast pace world of financial markets. Every so often shocks to the system like these occur which leave media outlets with much to report on and becomes the benchmark to future activity. Although there is much conversation and debate around these events my mind often wonders to the traders who sit with the accounts that have been beaten all the way down to zero in a matter of minutes. 

In situations like these I always try imagine myself in these kind of positions and think of how I would react to such an event. Quite honestly I think I would be devastated. Its really difficult to place yourself in situations as these and it's the type you hope and pray doesn't happen to you anytime soon out of the fear of not knowing how to properly deal with it.

But if I think about it again, can we really know when these infrequent occurrences happen? Do we have sufficient knowledge and proper safety precautions to prevent such a  personal financial disaster? We could employ good risk management but chances are they would stand no protection against a wave of abrupt economic data on a scale such as this.      

Reflecting back I always think of a client of mine who I've come to know very well over the years. One day while in conversation he told me of an experience when he was much younger, he suffered from a leaking valve in his heart. This was back in the late 1950's before the first heart transplant had taken place and cardiac research was starting to gain momentum. 

His parents couldn't understand why their baby was in such distress all the time and their worries grew, until a ray of hope was sent their way in a opportunity to go see a leading pioneer in the field, Dr Chris Barnard who later became famous for performing the first heart transplant.  Dr Barnard said that he could correct the defect in the child hearts with a new procedure which involved open heart surgery by placing the patient on a heart lung machine. 

However because the child was so young there was a chance of an unsuccessful result. So they had to decide if they could place their little 6 year old son's life in the hands of this bold and courageous man. 

Meanwhile little Jan didn't realize the profound effect this was to have on his life. He had only known life living on a farm, he had no idea the enormity of this breakthrough operation which was going to give him a second chance at life. As time drew closer to operation day he nerves began to sink in, loneliness of spending hours waiting in the ward for the all clear. But they were always comforted by the visits from his new friend, Oom Chris.

Whenever I hear Jan speaking about that moment 58 years ago I really find a sense of realization of the way he navigates his way through every challenge in his life. I've known him for a few years and I've always been in awe at his remarkable ability to stay composed in some of the hardest decision making choices in life. I truly believe that his experience he encountered as a young boy has moulded his mind to not allow fear to overshadow those decisions that make all the difference.

Having faced such a deathly experience at such a young age made him recognize the uneven pathway life sketches for us all and sometime sudden abrupt halt in normal living in favour of despair. And while that event was not the only or last obstacle he'll ever face, the ability to realize that we are not entirely in control of the way things happen but we are in the way we deal with it has given him the edge over others in life.

The episode relating to the franc will definitely go down in history just as the Flash Crash or Black Tuesday. In cases such as these most people lose large sums of money and the chance of building up a negative image of activities surrounding trading is high. I wouldn't blame anyone for such view, for some this has become a livelihood which they rely upon.

Some will  effectively end their trading careers and take on a new path of discovery, others will brave their souls and endure through the hardships in the hope of a second chance. However an event as such does highlight that in trading as in life, we are exposed  to risks of irregular occurrences all the time and sometimes there's nothing we can do to mitigate it. Although a bitter pill to swallow, we simply have to accept it has happened and carry on or further risk being left behind.


If there's one thing I've learnt from it, although not directly involved, is my heightened awareness of shocks in a system I never had before and a sudden need to seek out a contingency plan  in the form of backup savings should an event of this nature should happen but nothing can quite prepare a person like living through the experience.

"Life is what happens when you are busy making other plans" ~John Lennon

If you would like to contact me you can through my email at cadetrader@gmail.com or if you wish to follow me on twitter and get the latest updates of news, interesting commentary and general trends in the market, my twitter handle is @CadeTradeR if you follow this link it’ll take you directly to my twitter timeline: https://twitter.com/CadeTradeR

Friday 16 January 2015

Why Swiss Stocks are on a Roll?

What a trading day it was on Thursday when the SNB (Swiss National Bank) announced out of the blue it would be removing a cap it had placed on it's currency preventing it from strengthening further than 1.20 francs to a euro. This was put in place as a result of Swiss exports being hurt because of a strengthened franc. This cap has been in place for 3 years.



However after yesterdays announcement, the Euro/Swiss currency pair plunged to a low of 0.85 spooking the market and creating chaos. At one stage the Swiss franc had strengthened as much as 30% against all major currencies. Swiss stocks took most of the beating with the Swiss Market Index producing a daily range of 1300 points in an index that is only worth 8400 points as of yesterday. Effectively a strong franc would mean that Swiss stocks get expensive, which is why we saw a big drop in valuations. 

There are some analyst speculating that the SNB took this action because it believed that the ECB (European Central Bank) stimulus measures were probable and if it were to happen it would have a difficult time trying to intervene in the franc with such large scale measures in place. 

What effects does this have on the Swiss Stock Exchange? 

I thought it would be a great time to analyse the SMI since it's not an index that we follow much and see what technical damage might have occurred after yesterday's madness. 

The chart I'm going to start with is a Monthly over a time frame of 5 years. 


The SMI has been steadily climbing higher since mid 2013, the key level was the break out of the 8000. Once that level was secured the index had a chance to go higher, however what has been forming over the last year is a inverted ascending triangle. These are broadening formations which imply a large degree of volatility. The formation is on the height of a bull run so there will be skeptics wondering if this could be the end of the current bull run. 

Some key signs that I saw as important is the fact that the market ran down past the 8000 level and subsequently bounced up from that level. If the breakout to the downside does occur there is a possible move of 1400 points on the cards. Also note that there has been no technical damage to the uptrend. 

The next chart is the same SMI index but on a Daily over 3 Years. 


Interesting to see is the large Megaphone structure which affirms the large degree of volatility the Monthly chart was suggesting. The green line represents the uptrend and again we see the bounce materialize. The bottom end of the formation is pointing to 7700, if that were to happen it could possibly be the catalyst to further weakness. At the same time support on the uptrend comes in at 8200 so we can't rule out contestation between the bulls and the bears which could lead to more volatility.  

It would seems that there are many scenarios which are at play at the moment and anything can happen creating large wells of uncertainty within the financial markets. What is certain though is that the long term outlook for the franc is a stronger one. If the SNB believes that the ECB will put measures in place it can only mean further weakness of the euro against all major currencies, this in turn will lead to a more pressure being applied on Swiss stocks. 

What the events of yesterday tell us is that the situation playing itself out in the Euro zone is indicative of the extent of the problems which underline the need for extensive measures to be put in place. Something I think few quite appreciate...

If you would like to contact me you can through my email at cadetrader@gmail.com or if you wish to follow me on twitter and get the latest updates of news, interesting commentary and general trends in the market, my twitter handle is @CadeTradeR if you follow this link it’ll take you directly to my twitter timeline: https://twitter.com/CadeTradeR 




Friday 9 January 2015

Finding a Purpose in Your Trading

Recently I met up with an old school friend of mine and spent some time talking about time gone past, good times, bad times and our future prospects. He has been studying Pharmacology for 7 years and fast approaching the end of his Masters which makes me glee with pride. I know the hard work and dedication it takes to stay immersed in one aspect of your life together with a steadfast belief in a career path to ensure lifelong fulfillment.

But what struck me the most is when I found out why he had chosen this particular field of study. He had always shown a strong interest in biology but many would have thought it as normal, a preference or easy understanding of the subject yet I truly never knew why or asked until he told me his story recently.

He grew up with his grandfather and formed a very close bond with him. However his grandfather was diagnosed with cancer. You can only truly appreciate an impact of such life changing events when you get to live through it. He was very young and the thought of losing his grandfather, as anyone can imagine, left him shattered. 

He sat next to his grandfather's bedside until he took his last breath and that moment he vowed that he would dedicate his life to cancer research in memory of his grandfather because of what he had felt during that experience.


Finding a purpose in life comes from our past experiences, hard or easy. What we value the most in our lives will ultimately determine the direction of our aspirations. We can never say with absolute certainty where our lives are headed yet we are in control of our desires. The desire to prove that no matter what the situation, we have the will and determination to overcome the most fearful experience and turn it into our greatest achievement. 

In trading most will agree that anyone who decides to embark on this journey as have millions of others before them have done so based on the goal of making money. Not to say that the profit motive is the wrong reason, but if you solely base your desire to be rich you'll end up finding your patience with the learning curve wearing thin. 

The amount of times you have to endure failure is more than you can imagine. The psychological impacts of these can be devastating to say the least but you have to have the drive to brush these aside and continue. There are no shortcuts when it comes to trading success, only the path less travelled.

Reflection is a great tool to discover yourself. Thinking about what drives you to keep coming back is really going to help you persevere. There are going to be times when your trading day is a total frustration but knowing your purpose to succeed is crucial to keeping you on the right path. 

Finally never forget those experiences that define you, the moments in your life which became the turning point of everything. Most often you will find them to be the difference between you pushing on or simply giving up. 

"The greatest glory in living lies not in never falling, but in rising everytime we fall"- Nelson Mandela

If you would like to contact me you can through my email at cadetrader@gmail.com or if you wish to follow me on twitter and get the latest updates of news, interesting commentary and general trends in the market, my twitter handle is @CadeTradeR if you follow this link it’ll take you directly to my twitter timeline: https://twitter.com/CadeTradeR

Tuesday 6 January 2015

Why is it Important to Adapt to Changing Market Conditions?

Firstly let me welcome all my readers to 2015 and here's to hoping its going to be a prosperous one. It's really great to be back after a short break and some time out to reboot my mind to mentally prepare myself for the year ahead.

Having a quick glance at the markets during the holidays did make me feel a little concerned about what current market conditions may materialize into in the coming weeks ahead. Although a bumpy start can be expected, the high levels of volatility seem to be persisting creating a large degree of uncertainty lying around in the market. 

I know from my trading journals that I sense frustration creeping in with lack of follow through in price movements.  I have never experienced periods of volatility this long so each day is a new lesson to learn an unfamiliar trading environment and a chance to expand my progression through my trading journey. 

I think back to when I first began and the naivety in my thoughts and ideas around trading, erroneously presuming that market conditions would stay constant, assuming that this would be the probable way my system would enable me to turn out a profit.  Of course trial and error is the best teacher when it comes to trading. I realized quite soon that my myopic judgement on the market conditions were ill-devised. 

A really great example of this is watching the seasons go by. I for one enjoy summer, to me there isn't any season more rewarding than warm days sitting next to the pool with meat of the braai (BBQ) and a few mates around to enjoy the afternoon. I wished it were like that everyday, but unfortunately the weather system has many variables which each play a part in determining the type of weather you will experience. 

Firstly it can't be summer all the time because the world rotates around its axis, we are in constant motion floating in a universe which has balance to it. When the Northern Hemisphere is having winter the Southern Hemisphere has summer and vice versa. We have no control of the motion, we have to accept where it is placed within the universe. 

Secondly you won't be dressed in your beach clothes in the middle of winter unless you're Lewis Pugh, the idea is pure insanity and you would literally freeze to death if you never found something to keep you warm.  Then it makes sense why we dress up warmly in winter, to adapt so we can better survive. 

The same goes for trading, our capability to notice the change in conditions and our degree of willingness to adapt to those condition will help ensure long term participation in the markets.  This is where most new traders will get caught up in the headwinds. Without the right mindset you feel an abrupt change to the norm which you have become accustomed too which preemptively leads you into a trap of believing the market is working against you. You find that your system begins to show cracks which hadn't previously shown up, you begin to question yourself and your ability as a trader. 

Some traders get frustrated and become aggressive and trade in bigger sizes to make up for the lack of performance yet you always find they come off second best. There is nothing, let me repeat nothing you can humanly possible do to change the condition of the market, you are merely one trader in a universe of many after the same goal; Survive and Thrive. 

You can however control the way you behave in the market by adapting to the conditions. First time traders will never be shown these conditions until they've actually happened which is why it is imperative that proper risk management is employed so that the trader protects himself/herself from detrimental capital losses and thus have the available capital and mind set to operate in changing environments. 

Presently the global markets feel as if they in between seasons, neither here nor there but one thing is for sure, once this period of transition has ended there will emerge a distinct direction once again, nothing stands still. The next few months are going to be critical and your level of alertness needs to be razor sharp. 

If you would like to contact me you can through my email at cadetrader@gmail.com or if you wish to follow me on twitter and get the latest updates of news, interesting commentary and general trends in the market, my twitter handle is @CadeTradeR if you follow this link it’ll take you directly to my twitter timeline: https://twitter.com/CadeTradeR