Tuesday, 23 August 2016

Technical Tuesday: Altria Group Inc.

Quarterly 


This is a classic "bottom left top right" chart that's given stockholders phenomenal returns over a long term investment period. The performance over this time span using a simple linear price scale doesn't allow us to draw in a rigid uptrend. and would require a logarithmic price scale to identify at what points the long term trends lies. 

However I've placed two moving averages on top of the price data namely the 8 and the 21 as these give a good indication of the strength in the trend with the crossover occurring in the third quarter of 2010 and has consistently diverged away from each other since then. 


On a logarithmic price scale we see a much steadier uptrend in position with the time between the start to the subsequent retest of support taking five years to materialise with consolidatory price action responsible for the move. The fact we haven't seen a reasonable pullback suggests a difficulty in getting sellers committed which also points to a level of confidence in the business and management, a scarce but valuable characteristic to exhibit. 

Weekly



Continuing on the shorter term charts a similar picture emerges with a strong uptrend in place that's guided prices higher. A brief pause in momentum has taken hold of proceedings with still some way underneath the 21 moving average before price meets up with the uptrend again. This is likely to happen with secondary indicators pointing to a strong move upwards. 

The stochastic has worked off the overbought condition it found itself in while at the same time setting up bullish divergence that suggests the trend will continue. 

Verifying this effect, the MACD remains in the positive zone indicating a higher chance of the price rebounding back to all time highs and possibly further than that.  

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