Tuesday, 22 December 2015

Will India become the next frontier?

What a turbulent year it has been for most markets following a big drop off in demand stemming from China, a nation the world has become too reliant on to fuel new demand as old economies take a backseat and try fix problems of their own. However as much as the media focus has been tuned in on China, the Asian region should not be ignored given the great economic strides various countries in and around have made in progression of their own economies and that of the region becoming a major trading hub globally.

For one, India has remained largely unnoticed as chaos descends on the world economy, yet surprisingly the country was able to record the largest economic growth this year amongst its peers. Its safe to assume that the sheer number of people in China being economically liberated has resulted in robust global demand for goods and services ranging from the industrial sector to the consumer segment.

Many forget that India exhibits a similar population size to their neighbours China which does give them scope to grow at a rapid pace, the same seen by China over the past two decades or so.

However I think the greatest separation both nations have from each other is the level of organisational skills used to implement transitional policies. The many years of communist rule has left China with large pools of rural areas not yet emancipated from economic oppression yet its citizens willing to fall in line to government's authoritarian power after decades of not knowing any better.

It is this system, whether wrong or right, that allows China to control the process so well compared to the disruptive forces that would usually take precedent during a shift in economic and political philosophy.

But in India you have past colonial rule followed by mass poverty on a scale so large the only way to describe it would be in an abstract sense which is a great crime to the people of India. Chaos rules the day as those seeking economic retribution try make a menial living from the little skills they do possess.

If we are to see any concrete growth from this populous nation we need to see a government prepared to lay down the foundational elements needed to leverage future generations that require certainty in upholding continuity coupled with organisational processes that free those from the chaos and places a system where the ability to do business isn't hampered by the lack of infrastructure.
The economic challenges faced by Indians are certainly not absent from the academic fields applied to other countries attempting to create well being for its citizens however I don't think the world has seen such a project of this scale involving the numbers that India exhibits which does give you a sense of excitement but at the same time trepidation over whether authorities can pull off such a mass human project.

I think the biggest confidence booster for India was the elections it held in 2014 which saw over 550 million Indians coming out to vote over a series of weeks because of the enormity of the task, a feat which represented the largest ever elections globally. The way in which officials conducted themselves and the willingness by Indians to come out and make their feelings known to political leaders show that India is on a strong footing going forward.

The result saw Narendra Modi being elected the Prime Minister becoming only the 15th person to do so since India's independence. Modi has won over business with his right leaning policies and has thus far impressed those who have elected him but the true test now lies in whether he can continue building on the momentum he has been afforded thus far and balance relations between those he needs cooperation from to ensure his political goals are met.

On the foreign relation front he seems to have attracted the attention of some big name countries who may have felt skeptical over China's ascendency to economic power after years of closure to the outside world together with their unscrupulous ways in conforming to worldwide norms exerting a degree of arrogance.

This has won Modi favour with nations such as Japan who has long been one of those critics of China with relations between the countries blossoming extensively with high speed railway infrastructure projects in the pipelines that would provide much needed transit ability to Indians at speed.

Yet India remains one of the founding members of BRICS, an economic association representing the largest developing economies around the globe with membership of Brazil, Russia, China and South Africa. It places them in a diplomatic position of striking political power. In years to come it could be the bridge between China and the rest of the world working in unison, no one ever thinks of these things until they actually materialise.

And to review the economic situation from each nation in the BRICS, it's fair to say that India has been the only shining beacon amongst all members showing that the pathway it has embarked is one of strength and not pure reliance on an ascending economic super power.

I really feel excited about the prospects of the future and looking forward to journal the progression as they begin to unfold for India. The most promising facet is the future of the world's wealth will no longer reside in one place but rather it will be spread from east to west, a sign that inequality could see a dramatic fall come the end of the 21st century.

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