Wednesday, 23 December 2015

It's only getting tougher for EU leaders to prove their case

You'd agree with me if I told you the biggest news story that came out of the Eurozone this year is arguably the Greek debt showdown between creditors and newly elected leftist leader Alexis Tsipras who had won over the hearts of most Greeks by promising a dramatic cut to austerity measure put in place by previous governments who had hope to get the Greek economy back on track which now looks set to be derailed.

What Tsipras didn't realise is that international creditors had just about enough of his antics and played hardball right till the end eventually securing a deal that saw tougher conditions placed on his debt ridden nation.

We've seen how debt has formed the central point for those skeptics who argued against the formation of such an agreement years ago with the debate rearing its head more frequently as more nations become overburdened with debt piles used to afford politicians power with no degree of prudence whatsoever.

But it's my belief that we are yet to see the end of these critics with every passing year new claims and evidence showing the cracks in a failing system.
There has been a slow buildup of momentum from nations within the EU expressing their dissatisfaction about the way things are going with one of the earliest political figureheads to put the public's support for EU membership to a referendum being British Prime Minister David Cameron from the Conservative Party. If one goes back to the United Kingdom's staunch opposition to joining the EU under the leadership of Margaret Thatcher you get the sense that the nation was always going to require a level of flexibility when agreeing to join such a bloc.

It would seem that Cameron is happy to stayed within the trade agreement however he will be looking for a renegotiation of terms to its membership that would see the UK yield greater power in deciding policies that encourage closer integration amongst members, a move it wishes to distance itself from due to an over reliance of smaller debt burdened nations on bigger economic players to bail them out as was the case with Greece.

But we've seen a wave of anti-austerity pro-independence political parties rising as tempers amongst those who feel let down by those political leaders who reassured them of no damage to their social transfers but forced to choose between lenders or voters. We've seen recently in Portugal a change of power with a newly elected government threatening to unhinge all the measures used to secure bailouts, a similar move to the Greeks.

In Catalonia, Spain we saw a massive victory for a pro-independence party setting the trend leading up to general elections heading into 2016 with the ruling party facing concerns that it won't be able to convince voters to keep the party in power with the nation falling into the hands of anti-austerity movements. The bar has been set and the stakes are high but who will hold and who will fold?

I recently blogged a post regarding the seismic problems Europe is facing comes down to structural problems within each specific nations as opposed to a common theme around the EU. One country that shows exactly this is Finland who has recently said it wishes to have a referendum to assess its citizens willingness to stay in the Eurozone.  

The problem seems to stem from a lack of control over a local currency, a dilemma it find itself in when it joined the EU and accepted the Euro as a common currency. The nordic country is export dependent and labour costs tipping the high end, their products are simply to expensive to sell within the EU.

Not only this, but the Euro hasn't depreciated enough against other major trade partners that would allow Finnish products become cheaper. There have been many who have proposed that perhaps the Finns should revert back to using its own currency but that would mean moving away from closer integration and probably a step that doesn't align itself with that of its EU member counterparts.

This has set a trend in motion that I believe will take a big leap towards dominating the existing belief that debt is the problem when it comes to the EU. If the Eurozone were to succeed by any measure it will be forced to let loose it grip of these smaller players, a strategy which could work for and against it but it is certain that should it not the fate of the Eurozone is doomed.

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