ANC faces a tough decision over Zuma

I've been following the extensive coverage that's been given over the latest scandal surrounding that of Jacob Zuma firing Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene last week Wednesday and replacing him with a unknown back bencher collecting tertiary certificate's with a failed reputation of running municipalities into the ground.

The reaction from both local and international investors sent a strong message to Mr Zuma and the ruling party, that if a ministry of such importance were going to be tampered with for one's own personal use, they were prepared to make capital flee faster than a jack rabbit smoked out his hole.

Zuma quickly reversed his decision late on Sunday evening by swapping his new finance minister with that of a former finance minister but now running a different ministry, Pravin Gordhan. It was as if you could hear the market breathe a huge sigh of relief when the announcement made its way through the various media outlets but no doubt the damaged caused to the nation's reputation.

It now appears that banking executives made a strong appeal to some senior members of the ruling party to rethink the decision and change it before disaster sets in. It's important to note at this time that it is understood that Zuma had not consulted any of his cabinet members or senior leaders in the ruling party before making the decision which left the ruling party very red faced.

The decision to reverse his decision implies some harrowing times lie ahead for this flawed leader with no control of himself. It tells us that even his own party has lost trust in his ability to successfully lead South Africa and this has forced them to clip his wings in terms of powers as president to make decisions for himself.

Installing Gordhan has helped the restore calm back into the market for now, but it wasn't Zuma's choice to do it but that of his fellow leaders. Effectively Gordhan can be seen as being the most powerful person in South Africa right now.  One misstep from Zuma and the door to the exit will await his departure sooner rather than later.  

The fallout from Zuma's decision to replace Nene sent SA's biggest banks straight to the ANC to reverse it https://t.co/kTixVqeniX

— Bloomberg Africa (@BBGAfrica) December 15, 2015

I can only imagine the ruling party, the African National Party, being closely engaged in debate over whether the decision to remove Zuma before his tenure ends in 2019 would prove beneficial for the party who have seen their majority voting base eroding with Zuma at the helm, probably suggesting that he remains a liability to them rather than an asset it so needs to give it the confidence it has lack the last 8 years since he was elected party president.

There isn't much work needed if you were to list the number of scandals Zuma has been embroiled in over the years which would give the ANC leadership much ammunition but at the risk of running into factional battles it has suffered from since 2007 elective conference in Polokwane when former South African president Thabo Mbeki faced off against Zuma with the former being recalled 9 months before his term was to end.

Then comes the question of who would the best candidate to run the country? The party's deputy president Cyril Ramaphosa has extensive experience in both the labour and organised business front which gives him good credibility but this is marred by the Marikana Massacre in which 34 miners died at the hands of police who sprayed an angry mob of strikers with bullets from automatic weapons.

Ramaphosa was the chairman of the company Lonmin and had written a letter to the police force only hours before the massacre occurred asking for "concomitant action" to be taken against these miners who were threatening violence. This has led to many, especially among the poor seeing him as a traitor or sellout of the poor with a business friendly hand.

I don't think the would be wrong as Ramaphosa has seen his wealth grow by astronomical figures since he focus in the business community which he sees as an opportunity to reduce unemployment figures that have dogged the country as trade unions have used their cosy relationship with the ANC and alliance partners, the South African Communist Party, to extend their dominance in the labour sector with more stringent laws in place against business who fail to comply with correct procedure.

You get a sense that if the ANC were to fire Zuma it wouldn't be based on the outburst of anger it has heard from all quarters over the last week but rather if it they have the necessary means to execute such a plan which places them in a dilemma in that they risk losing more political ground if they don't make a change and still lose if they do. How they navigate through these periods of rough sea will ultimately define the ANC in the history books.