Monday 21 September 2015

Top Tweets Today: 21/09/2015

Something that's been making my life harder as a chartist is exactly this fact stated by Ryan Detrick that the S&P 500 had alternated between up/down movements for 11 straight weeks. The problem is you never get a clear direction on which way the market can go plus it makes technical charts look like a kindergarten drawing session. Incredible frustrating for anyone but it's comforting to know that no one market condition stays in tack all the time, it's bound to change so let's hope we get some more clarity going forward as we head into the last quarter of the year.
How long has it been since the Fed lifted interest rates? Probably so long that US  borrowers have forgotten what it feels like to pay hefty interest payments. This tweet I found to be very creative exaggerating that fact.

The Fed delaying hikes has left markets wondering if this year will definitely be the year that we do see an increase as the Fed cites external factors such as China and energy prices weighing heavily on their decision last week Thursday.
If you take a look around the market of late and can't notice anything bullish about it you haven't been looking hard enough with US  10 Year Treasury surging on the announcement of the Fed deciding not to rise rates and don't look to be fully convinced that we will see a rise anytime soon.

Bond prices and yields work inversely to one another meaning a decrease in rates will increase the price of bonds. However I don't think the US is anywhere near decreasing rates as they are at historical lows (0-0.25%) by holding off those hikes and adjusting forecasts about the pace at which the Fed intends to initiate each hike has cooled down speculation which in turn has made Treasuries look promising again.

I believe the majority of the market has been pricing in hefty hikes at a considerable pace which cannot be sustained if one looks at the strength of not only the US economy but that of its global counterparts. Trying to assess the rate cycle based on previous occasions will fall short of what is expected as the situation which has evolved since 2008 cannot be compared to normal because its far from it.


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