Friday, 25 September 2015

Samurai Summary: Top Tweets 25/09/2015

This is something that comes up a lot with many traders I talk too when they breakdown aspects of their trading that worked for and against them. I've found that traders tend to pick trades with enough edge to work for them but fail to set a target which leaves the realm of price possibilities open for debate. If there's one frustration that's difficult to work with it's exactly that.

Often a trade will work out nicely however the trader is left with the question; "Is this the correct exit level?"

You might get lucky and pick the right level or worse you exit too soon and the trade would've worked out even better had you held on longer.

Having a set point where you 'd like to exit tells you that you have calculated some realistic measure of  movement you expect to be reached as well as prepared yourself to follow the trade through without stressing if your target will be reached thus eliminating uncertain feelings.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen gave a statement yesterday after US markets were closed which seemed to filter through the markets in a more positive light than last week's announcement of no increase in the Fed Funds rate. Yellen was assertive that she saw an increase likely to happen this year but went on to express uncertainty over external factors that had held back the Fed's decision.

I believe this is what the market was looking for rather than a morbid picture painted of the global financial system in turmoil. If we look at the performance financial markets have given back after QE ended it's not difficult to understand there is a concern that the market is relying too heavily on free money.

The Fed has been confident is its policy over the past 6 years which the market relies on to guide them. However not lifting rates would suggest that the Fed fears that doing that would have a negative impact on the US economy but in the same breathe singing an optimistic tune of improvements made.
It seems there's no stopping the emerging market currency rout as the selloff deepens. Fears over when the Fed will lift rates has tempered the Bears into overdrive as many of these emerging economy's lack the sufficient growth themselves to begin lifting there own interest rates.

We stuck in a catch 22 situation, either they lift rates to keep the difference between developed economies and theirs at a reason width and at the same time strangle the little economic activity that is left or keep them on hold and burden the public with inflationary imports. One things for sure, I'm glad I'm not a central banker at the moment.

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