Wednesday 23 September 2015

Top Tweet Today: 23/09/2015

A quite frightening piece of technical resistance I've seen in awhile which could be telling for equity markets in the medium term. Brilliant charting by Aksel Kibar who has drawn a long term chart of the MSCI All Countries Index. The reason this chart has so much appeal right now is down to the direction most markets seem to be heading...down.

 This is of major concern as a move downward would lead many to believe that world equity markets might be stuck in a range bound environment for years to come. We must be aware that this index is denominated in dollars, so it would mean that in dollar terms. This is important especially for markets such as the JSE (Johannesburg Securities Exchange) where the most followed index, the Top 40 index which tracks the largest 40 blue chip companies by market capitalisation, has seen an uptrend in Rand terms but if you convert it into dollar terms it's pretty much been flat.

Talking from a personal experience from someone who resides in South Africa, I would certainly say that if an investor were to look at the stock market and then the economy there is much divergence between the two and I would imagine the same across other economies too.

Judging the effectiveness of QE from the Fed who pumped trillion of dollars into the system only to result in subdued growth and fears from the market that should they lift rates it could harm the balance of things even if it's by the smallest increment possible, I'd say they failed.

Speaking in a press conference today, ECB president Mario Draghi reiterated that the central would be ready and able to expand its bond buying program if need be as signs of weaker demand are seen showing in the inflation rate.

The EU has been plagued with low inflation over the past years as an aging population and government social security system has taken off in a big way stunting growth in the economic area. Added to this recently was the Greek debt debacle which saw EU leaders.frantically rushing to find a solution whilst the world was dealing with its own problems namely the oil plunge and China.

Trading the market of late has really been a drag on me, especially with high levels of volatility and lack of conviction behind the moves. A few trading pals of mine have said they happy to sit on the sidelines for now and let the market do its thing. The market will remain in place.

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