Showing posts with label South Africa. Show all posts
Showing posts with label South Africa. Show all posts

Friday, 3 June 2016

Waiting for the inevitable: The pending case of South Africa's junk status

Nothing comes closer to my heart than my home country South Africa yet it pains me to underscore the seriousness of the morbid outlook being projected in the face of a potential downgrade of the nation's investment quality status to junk by Standard & Poor's that'll be announced on the 3rd June 2016. 

Much of the hype built up to the event has been debated ad nauseum with the conclusion all pointing to one person, Jacob Gedleyihlekisa Zuma being named the chief culprit in tarnishing the image of the country after a series of scandalous cases concerning the abuse of power questioning his true intentions of ruling the nation. 

Zuma's insatiable appetite for self-wealth creation from state coffers to feed his own desires as well as that of his family and close business associates have tainted the integrity of the fierce struggle movement, the African National Congress, who continual find inconsistent justification for his despicable flouting of the South African Constitution whose signatories include the late former president Nelson Mandela.  

Yet the issue over the manner in which Zuma and his party have mismanaged the economy to such an extent that it would send all investor rationale over the edge into a height of panic around the stability of certainty has sent rating agencies effecting pressure on government to restrain the bloating wasteful expenditure with none example closer to the point than the case of Nkandla where the state spent R246 million "upgrading security" at the president's personal residence. 

The farcical impropriety that ended up in a four year legal battle that saw the president and his merry men of banditing cronies vehemently deny any liability on the part of the mysterious "Number 1" eventually saw the Constitutional Court weighing in by ruling that Zuma had failed to uphold his oath of office by placing his own interest ahead of the country's.      

Did President Jacob Zuma find it in himself to face the shame of dishonouring his nation in failing in his duties to uphold, defend and protect the Constitution? Not at all, instead he found it appropriate to only apologise for the transgressions of his Cabinet instead of stepping down. 

Furthermore his attempt to capture State Treasury fizzled out miserably when he fired then finance minister Nhlanhla Nene and replacing him with a political puppet, Des Van Rooyen. His own party showed eerie signs of distress when they called an emergency meeting and insisted Zuma reverse the decision he had made due to the consequential financial outflows that began as a result of such a disastrous move. 

All this didn't come about in a matter of months, no this notion has been in momentum since Zuma took office in 2009 and slowly gathered speed with every waking scandal he becomes embroiled in. Only a year and a half ago I wrote an article expressing signs of declining confidence in government with the departure of two key decision makers, that being Gil Marcus who didn't renew her contract as the Governor of the South African Reserve Bank. 

Marcus had been critical of the government especially on the matter of Marikana, an area in the platinum belt of the country, where miners had tragically lost their lives at the hands of the police force. However her cries of warning were faint when reaching those that it mattered most too and the belief that her influence had no bearing on the course of the country deemed her position ineffective. 

Then came the shift of Pravin Gordhan from the ministry of finance to co-operative governance after Gordhan found no pleasure in appealing to fellow cabinet members to tighten their belts and cut back on wasteful expenditure the gravest insult being the Nkandla debacle that became the final straw for Gordhan who prides himself on honesty. Unable to bear the tirade of anger from both the South African public as well as members of the opposition party, a suitable ministry was found for him until that rug was pulled up from underneath him. 

Gordhan was installed for a second time to head up Treasury after the meddling ways of Zuma caused his own party to force him to remove Van Rooyen and place Gordhan in the position being a man of strong morals and values that would hopefully reinforce the ruling party's commitment of a concrete financial system that encourages foreign investment. 

But the move didn't come without a dilution of Zuma's power who immediately became threatened by Gordhan's appointment with top directorate of organised crime, the Hawks swooping in with allegations of an illegal formation of a rogue group to infiltrate top earners. Gordhan's name conveniently found its way onto the list and possible charges brought to the public's attention all to discredit him. 

Six months into his new tenure and the political boxing match between the factions of the ruling party and that of a member tripartite alliance, the South African Communist Party, is yet to reach a boiling point with both sides steadfast in buckling the others attempts to grab hold of power. 

What was Gordhan's factions response to trumped up charges against their chosen defender? 

Revelations that the Gupta brothers, Zuma's closest business associates, had a say in the appointment of Zuma's own cabinet with the most damning allegations coming from deputy finance minister Mcensibi Jonas who said he had been offered Nene's job before he was fired! Surely this would be the dagger in the president's power. 

Never.

Our beloved "Number 1" used the opportunity to intensify the pressure on Gordhan by the Hawks eventually yielding enough concessions from his opponents to once again find inexcusable propaganda by dropping an ANC internal probe into the matter. 

There's no hiding from the facts that South African politics closely resembles that of a soap opera that's filled with as much outrageous storylines as it does any form of hope, it does also point to a poignant outcome that's sure to strangle investor confidence in the country if nothing is done to stop its destructive ways. 

The more evidence that comes to light showing how Jacob Zuma is successfully funnelling away state resources into his personal endeavours of enrichment with no ramifications the further distant the goals of investment separate themselves from the greater good of the country. 

Investors elementary requirements might be to return a positive yield in offering capital but that becomes clouded when considering the long term steadiness of funds when a constant force of dispossession takes place from citizens to a single individual. The net may have been cast to an intermediate structure but nothing says it can't grow wider with all the scandals and political paybacks owed after what can only be described as disgraceful abuse of power.     
    
In saying this the question whether South Africa gets downgraded from investment grade to junk no longer stands but rather that of when the downgrade will happen with time getting nearer. 

South Africans have yet to fully realise the devastating financial impact that can still be felt if the political infighting doesn't find resolve and I'm afraid to say judging by the developments that have been allowed to take place it doesn't seem like they'll be solved anytime soon. Hopefully it isn't too late because this country we call home might descend into a scavenger's paradise, ultimately a failed state.  

Monday, 7 March 2016

Another financial house looking to move out South Africa

A new week another dent in the South African government's plan to inject confidence in its financial and banking system as news overnight reported that insurer Old Mutual Plc is considering splitting its entities into separate companies leaving investors wondering if the longer term implications of President Jacob Zuma decision to fired Nhlanhla Nene in December, after a fallout between the pair, could be setting in motion a deafening vote of no confidence in his or his cabinets capability in keeping foreign investors at ease with reckless actions that potentially open up avenues to tougher economic conditions.

Actions taken by Zuma in early December 2015 caused gyrations throughout the South African financial system calling into question the independence of Treasury and sending the local currency, the Rand to all time lows of R18 to one US Dollar. The Top 4 Banks suffered major devaluations following the announcement in concern that Zuma might be wrestling over control of Treasury for his own gains, inherently implying a much greater risk when considering the height of bribery and corruption charges that were levelled against him before his tenure as president.

This is the second financial institution in less than a week to make such a move with many expecting more to knock at government's lack of trustworthiness. Barclays Plc announced last week that it intended selling down its 62% stake in local and African exposed Barclays Africa Group but at the same time not giving away too many reasons why it planned such a move.
Old Mutual is said to be looking at unbundling Nedbank Group, the asset that strikes the most interest at present as well as its wealth management in the UK and surprisingly its emerging markets business that resides in South Africa.

We have seen a steady decline in sentiment favouring investment into emerging markets over the last year after the interconnectedness of world economies to the activity of China has caused a knock-on effect that has seen a slowdown in global growth but more specifically these nations as they have geared themselves up towards driving Chinese growth.

However we should not be led astray by international economic issues affecting the world although they play a significant part in the whole equation, we should scale down into the country specific factors that have contributed to the sell off and resultant capital flight as there are wider implications that lie ahead for the health of South African financial markets instead of falling in the trap of believing that the country has been simply placed in the same basket with other poor performing economies.

The ruling party's hastened reaction to the decision made by Zuma and subsequent about turn stance of support for Zuma or rather lack of after affording him sufficient space to sow the seeds of discontent in South Africa shows a lack of interest in segments of the economy that do not translate immediately into severe financial market volatility that sparks the interest of the international media.

Profound support of controversies such as the Nkandla debacle, nepotism in government departments and blatant spending abuse from officials have propped up Zuma's political strength that meant the decision he took was based on his confidence of overall support from the party up until now. The party only has themselves to blame for what has transpired and any measure put in place to try undo the negative externalities caused by such event will ultimately fail because investors have lost their faith in the government and ruling parties ability to govern South Africa.

In stark contrast to the daily protests we see on the streets filled with millions of dissatisfied voters, the silent yet disastrous move by foreign investors to leave the country indicates the steering force money has over those in power.