Wednesday 22 March 2017

There's more to the move in the S&P 500 than meets the eye

A topic fuelling flowing lately surrounds the event that saw the conclusion of a habitual lag the S&P 500 had found itself in by struggling to secure a daily movement of 1% or higher, a occurrence that's subsequently arrested volatility over an extended period of time.

Many would believe that President Trump had played the biggest part in calming markets fears and perhaps seen as a catalyst to accelerating stock market valuations to fresh highs.

Although some of it may be true, the Trump factor is quickly losing credence as the world settles in on the possibility of a global political shake up and various other players begin to overshadows Trump's often outlandish comments on solving world issues.

One of the participants who've stolen the limelight is Fed chair Janet Yellen whose hurriedly accelerated the central bank's ambitions of seeing interest rates at loftier levels.  
As normalisation grips the US economy, the ease with which US equities made a spirited sprint to the top of valuations will no longer be seen as safer alternatives emerge for investors to de-risk their portfolios.

In the chart posted above on Twitter by Charlie Bilello, indicates evidence of shifts in capital have subtly shown up but only through measures of relative performance. In this insistence the weakening sector is Small Caps, the last segment of the equity market to receive optimism from bullish enthusiasm yet a great indicator of investors attitude to flirting with risk.

The discrete actions of the so called "smart money" points to a highly significant turning point in world markets, let alone the United States.

From here onwards the convictions behind setting up a fresh bull run will grow dimmer with every new challenge presented to the world economy, a consequence that isn't difficult to envision given the brazenness of the Trump administration, especially in a vulnerable environment.  

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