Friday 3 June 2016

Waiting for the inevitable: The pending case of South Africa's junk status

Nothing comes closer to my heart than my home country South Africa yet it pains me to underscore the seriousness of the morbid outlook being projected in the face of a potential downgrade of the nation's investment quality status to junk by Standard & Poor's that'll be announced on the 3rd June 2016. 

Much of the hype built up to the event has been debated ad nauseum with the conclusion all pointing to one person, Jacob Gedleyihlekisa Zuma being named the chief culprit in tarnishing the image of the country after a series of scandalous cases concerning the abuse of power questioning his true intentions of ruling the nation. 

Zuma's insatiable appetite for self-wealth creation from state coffers to feed his own desires as well as that of his family and close business associates have tainted the integrity of the fierce struggle movement, the African National Congress, who continual find inconsistent justification for his despicable flouting of the South African Constitution whose signatories include the late former president Nelson Mandela.  

Yet the issue over the manner in which Zuma and his party have mismanaged the economy to such an extent that it would send all investor rationale over the edge into a height of panic around the stability of certainty has sent rating agencies effecting pressure on government to restrain the bloating wasteful expenditure with none example closer to the point than the case of Nkandla where the state spent R246 million "upgrading security" at the president's personal residence. 

The farcical impropriety that ended up in a four year legal battle that saw the president and his merry men of banditing cronies vehemently deny any liability on the part of the mysterious "Number 1" eventually saw the Constitutional Court weighing in by ruling that Zuma had failed to uphold his oath of office by placing his own interest ahead of the country's.      

Did President Jacob Zuma find it in himself to face the shame of dishonouring his nation in failing in his duties to uphold, defend and protect the Constitution? Not at all, instead he found it appropriate to only apologise for the transgressions of his Cabinet instead of stepping down. 

Furthermore his attempt to capture State Treasury fizzled out miserably when he fired then finance minister Nhlanhla Nene and replacing him with a political puppet, Des Van Rooyen. His own party showed eerie signs of distress when they called an emergency meeting and insisted Zuma reverse the decision he had made due to the consequential financial outflows that began as a result of such a disastrous move. 

All this didn't come about in a matter of months, no this notion has been in momentum since Zuma took office in 2009 and slowly gathered speed with every waking scandal he becomes embroiled in. Only a year and a half ago I wrote an article expressing signs of declining confidence in government with the departure of two key decision makers, that being Gil Marcus who didn't renew her contract as the Governor of the South African Reserve Bank. 

Marcus had been critical of the government especially on the matter of Marikana, an area in the platinum belt of the country, where miners had tragically lost their lives at the hands of the police force. However her cries of warning were faint when reaching those that it mattered most too and the belief that her influence had no bearing on the course of the country deemed her position ineffective. 

Then came the shift of Pravin Gordhan from the ministry of finance to co-operative governance after Gordhan found no pleasure in appealing to fellow cabinet members to tighten their belts and cut back on wasteful expenditure the gravest insult being the Nkandla debacle that became the final straw for Gordhan who prides himself on honesty. Unable to bear the tirade of anger from both the South African public as well as members of the opposition party, a suitable ministry was found for him until that rug was pulled up from underneath him. 

Gordhan was installed for a second time to head up Treasury after the meddling ways of Zuma caused his own party to force him to remove Van Rooyen and place Gordhan in the position being a man of strong morals and values that would hopefully reinforce the ruling party's commitment of a concrete financial system that encourages foreign investment. 

But the move didn't come without a dilution of Zuma's power who immediately became threatened by Gordhan's appointment with top directorate of organised crime, the Hawks swooping in with allegations of an illegal formation of a rogue group to infiltrate top earners. Gordhan's name conveniently found its way onto the list and possible charges brought to the public's attention all to discredit him. 

Six months into his new tenure and the political boxing match between the factions of the ruling party and that of a member tripartite alliance, the South African Communist Party, is yet to reach a boiling point with both sides steadfast in buckling the others attempts to grab hold of power. 

What was Gordhan's factions response to trumped up charges against their chosen defender? 

Revelations that the Gupta brothers, Zuma's closest business associates, had a say in the appointment of Zuma's own cabinet with the most damning allegations coming from deputy finance minister Mcensibi Jonas who said he had been offered Nene's job before he was fired! Surely this would be the dagger in the president's power. 

Never.

Our beloved "Number 1" used the opportunity to intensify the pressure on Gordhan by the Hawks eventually yielding enough concessions from his opponents to once again find inexcusable propaganda by dropping an ANC internal probe into the matter. 

There's no hiding from the facts that South African politics closely resembles that of a soap opera that's filled with as much outrageous storylines as it does any form of hope, it does also point to a poignant outcome that's sure to strangle investor confidence in the country if nothing is done to stop its destructive ways. 

The more evidence that comes to light showing how Jacob Zuma is successfully funnelling away state resources into his personal endeavours of enrichment with no ramifications the further distant the goals of investment separate themselves from the greater good of the country. 

Investors elementary requirements might be to return a positive yield in offering capital but that becomes clouded when considering the long term steadiness of funds when a constant force of dispossession takes place from citizens to a single individual. The net may have been cast to an intermediate structure but nothing says it can't grow wider with all the scandals and political paybacks owed after what can only be described as disgraceful abuse of power.     
    
In saying this the question whether South Africa gets downgraded from investment grade to junk no longer stands but rather that of when the downgrade will happen with time getting nearer. 

South Africans have yet to fully realise the devastating financial impact that can still be felt if the political infighting doesn't find resolve and I'm afraid to say judging by the developments that have been allowed to take place it doesn't seem like they'll be solved anytime soon. Hopefully it isn't too late because this country we call home might descend into a scavenger's paradise, ultimately a failed state.  

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