Showing posts with label IMF. Show all posts
Showing posts with label IMF. Show all posts

Wednesday, 1 June 2016

Japan's delay of a sales tax hike merely spells doom

In an expected move Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe delayed the implementation of a sales tax hike following the failure of the once prospective Abenomics that's seen Japanese debt balloon outwards placing its citizens with grim prospects of the future. The move will bring short term gain to an economy that's been battling deflationary pressures together with contractionary expectations related to the health of economic activity in the country.

Abe didn't deviate much from what he had said last week when Japan hosted the other 6 remaining members who make up the economic council of G7(otherwise known as Group of 7). He reiterated the risk the global economy faces due to the slowdown in activity in emerging market nations saying China had influenced most of the current downtrend being experienced adding that the adverse effects felt by most nations around the world had taken the wind out of the sails of a planned economic recovery that had been underway for some time.

As much as these economic conventions help guide investors on the course of direction the world economy is headed in, very often they're used to test alliances with the case of Japan's ties to China standing on shaky ground having centuries old rivalry with its Asian neighbour.

Trying to point out China's failings while ignoring their own dilemma of an increasing debt horde is quite rich when coming from the likes of Japan.
Credit rating agencies have already started circling with a handful of critics painting a woeful picture of the outlook of the Japanese economy if it doesn't properly arrest its debt problems that sits at the highest levels to GDP amongst all countries in the world. Furthermore the situation only becomes bleaker when you weigh up the poor take up of prime minister Abe's stimulant fiscal measures that produced the tiniest amount of excitement at the beginnings of its undertakings that subsequently fell by the wayside in recent years.

Refusal to concede defeat, Abe's lack of sensibility has prompted Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda to rush in and "save the day" as some might term it, when in fact the policies churned out from the monetary body is in direct conflict with the goals of the economy and its people.

The market never lies and none can be truer when observing the abnormal strength of the Yen versus the US Dollar leaving many theorist scratching around for answer after the BOJ dropped interest rates below zero and announcing more stimulus measures to an already extended program.

Supranational monetary organisation the International Monetary Fund have recently warned developed nations that the limits of monetary stimulus are wearing thin and stressed the need for governments to begin "structural reforms" of their economies if they want to avoid riding into economic catastrophe further down the line.

But again the powers that be continue to steer their economies in the opposing direction of rationality with Japan being a basket case leading the forefront of technological advancement in an economy yet failing to take into account the impact such changes bring onto the decision making process of its citizens.

Looking at reasons for why conventional economic policies aren't working isn't enough and should instead be viewed as a need to push past old beliefs by exploring the possibilities of exceeding the bounds of theories that have laid around for decades and renew the study of economics as it was intended in the formative years of Adam Smith.

Monday, 4 April 2016

The cats out the bag for the IMF's plan on the Greek debt crisis

An explosive leaked transcript from a conversation between IMF officials pertaining to the manner in which the monetary body intends on dealing with the Greek debt crisis has rocked the already shaky relationship between the desperate European nation plagued by economic calamity and one of  the three lenders of saving grace, the so called Troika, installed to prevent a spillover of defaulting debt due to non-payment because of inadequate means of doing so.

In the transcript that was released by WikiLeaks on Friday, the conversation suggests that the IMF may try to pressure the European Commission to provide a larger proportion of the debt relief as well as force the Greek government to scrap pension increases that's been at the heart of the stalemate between creditors and Athens. The IMF intends on doing this by threatening to exit from the Troika which could spell disaster going forward however this seems to be a scare tactic that was discussed amongst the three IMF officials who believe such a threat would awaken the European Union from its unrealistic ideals it thinks would be satisfactory to secure stability in the region once again.

This latest developments set off what is expected to be yet another round of back and forth disagreements between Greece and its creditors in an attempt to prevent a crisis. We saw the negative blow to confidence in the global economy when Greece's prime minister Alexis Tsipras fought for weeks over the conditions attached to the renew bailout deal that was eventually agreed upon at a much later date than would've been necessary.

The fight will continue as the deadline to reach a new deal draws closer with July being the cut off, but this time we can look forward to an even bigger resistance from Tsipras with these revelations giving him all the ammo needed to take aim at his nation's creditors. This could be devastating for financial markets as it would bring a new wave of volatility and uncertainty into the mix under tough conditions already being felt.  
One of the possibly reason's why creditors need to see a resolution soon could be because the referendum vote in the UK over whether to stay in the EU or not taking place on the 23rd June 2016. Many believe that the run up to these elections might interfere with the priority of reaching a conclusive agreement in Greece that wouldn't leave much time for policymakers to draw enough attention to the criticalness of such resolution after proceedings from the elections have wrapped up.

Although it can be argued that the Troika has had more than enough time to iron out its differences with Greece, the previous negotiations have left a bitter taste in their mouth with many leaders taking deep political hits to their credibility. In attempting to devise a plan being fully aware of Tsipras resilient and tempered personality, the IMF has tried to avoid a renewed crisis and in fairness who could blame them.

However Greece's 11th hour crucial decision-making antics have pushed the extremities too far that the European Union has been found complacent in its concessions to allow these political point scoring games to continue for as long as they have.

It could be said that the IMF sees the Greek debt crisis as a perpetual disadvantage for the EU moving forward with the latest revelations indicating their unhappiness at the lack of proper restructuring taking place which puts Europe at risk of economic catastrophe. We've heard that the benefits of an expanded monetary program has reached the end of its time and the need to restructure, in referring particularly to developed economies, is catching up with politicians who have for too long made promises that lack the continuity of more than a generation.

If the EU continues to follow such a path that leads to no ends we could well begin to see the end of the EU itself. And so I leave you with a quote:

"The recipe for perpetual ignorance is: Be satisfied with your opinions and content with your knowledge." ~ Elbert Hubbard