Wednesday 1 June 2016

Japan's delay of a sales tax hike merely spells doom

In an expected move Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe delayed the implementation of a sales tax hike following the failure of the once prospective Abenomics that's seen Japanese debt balloon outwards placing its citizens with grim prospects of the future. The move will bring short term gain to an economy that's been battling deflationary pressures together with contractionary expectations related to the health of economic activity in the country.

Abe didn't deviate much from what he had said last week when Japan hosted the other 6 remaining members who make up the economic council of G7(otherwise known as Group of 7). He reiterated the risk the global economy faces due to the slowdown in activity in emerging market nations saying China had influenced most of the current downtrend being experienced adding that the adverse effects felt by most nations around the world had taken the wind out of the sails of a planned economic recovery that had been underway for some time.

As much as these economic conventions help guide investors on the course of direction the world economy is headed in, very often they're used to test alliances with the case of Japan's ties to China standing on shaky ground having centuries old rivalry with its Asian neighbour.

Trying to point out China's failings while ignoring their own dilemma of an increasing debt horde is quite rich when coming from the likes of Japan.
Credit rating agencies have already started circling with a handful of critics painting a woeful picture of the outlook of the Japanese economy if it doesn't properly arrest its debt problems that sits at the highest levels to GDP amongst all countries in the world. Furthermore the situation only becomes bleaker when you weigh up the poor take up of prime minister Abe's stimulant fiscal measures that produced the tiniest amount of excitement at the beginnings of its undertakings that subsequently fell by the wayside in recent years.

Refusal to concede defeat, Abe's lack of sensibility has prompted Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda to rush in and "save the day" as some might term it, when in fact the policies churned out from the monetary body is in direct conflict with the goals of the economy and its people.

The market never lies and none can be truer when observing the abnormal strength of the Yen versus the US Dollar leaving many theorist scratching around for answer after the BOJ dropped interest rates below zero and announcing more stimulus measures to an already extended program.

Supranational monetary organisation the International Monetary Fund have recently warned developed nations that the limits of monetary stimulus are wearing thin and stressed the need for governments to begin "structural reforms" of their economies if they want to avoid riding into economic catastrophe further down the line.

But again the powers that be continue to steer their economies in the opposing direction of rationality with Japan being a basket case leading the forefront of technological advancement in an economy yet failing to take into account the impact such changes bring onto the decision making process of its citizens.

Looking at reasons for why conventional economic policies aren't working isn't enough and should instead be viewed as a need to push past old beliefs by exploring the possibilities of exceeding the bounds of theories that have laid around for decades and renew the study of economics as it was intended in the formative years of Adam Smith.

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