Showing posts with label EU. Show all posts
Showing posts with label EU. Show all posts

Monday, 6 February 2017

European woes aiding fresh uncertainty in the market

I stumbled across this chart posted by Cecile Vannucci on Twitter and found the observation thought provoking. The underlying instrument being studied is the SPDR EuroStoxx 50 ETF, a popular depository receipt listed on the New York Stock Exchange that tracks the movements of the EuroStoxx 50 index in Europe.

The activity being followed is the amount of short interest positions taken on a weekly basis with the vertical axis representing the level of quantity traded.

Analysing the chart,  the evidence of asymmetry is quite prominent when assessing the magnitude of volumes produced just in the last week when compared against preceding stages.

The closest figure in this set of data to come anywhere near this number happened almost a year ago however the volumes recorded in that particular registered 20 000 whereas the current aggregate sitting shy of 100 000 contract, a staggering five times the volume.
Investigating further with charting, it immediately becomes noticeable that the EuroStoxx 50 has been confined to a downtrend since the second half of 2014 whilst only breaking free of this containment in recent weeks.

A lateral resistance just below $35 has acted as a catalyst for bearish traders to take advantage in the past with the prospects of this happening strengthening when used in conjunction with the information provided above.


SPDR EuroStoxx 50 ETF
With European political dynamics drifting into limbo in the months ahead, it's not surprising to see the state of play being set up.

Both the Dutch and French elections are bound to create uncertainty going into voting day on March 15th and April 23rd respectively with right-wing nationalism surging forward in the polls leading up to elections.

Added to this is the re-introduction yet again of the Greece debt crisis which hardly goes a year without shaking the institution of the EU.

A tricky political issue that refuses to go away but coincidently is responsible for claiming power away from ruling governments.

Unless something drastically changes, which is highly unlikely, the tone being set by financial market participants will ultimately remain until some resolve is found.

Wednesday, 28 September 2016

Why is the European financial system is getting shakier by the day?

The pressure inside the European financial system doesn't seem likely to lower anytime soon with the latest development coming out of Deutsche Bank who received a demand from the US Department of Justice ordering the corporation to settle a $14 billion fine related to mortgage-backed securities that were mis-sold to the public during the build up to the 2008 Financial Crisis.

However top management responded quickly to dispel speculation over the mammoth amount it could potentially have to pay over to US authorities by indicating that it expected to pay the penalty but confidently said it would be able to negotiate a lower charge as US banks had done prior to settlement.

This comes on the heels of an impending Italian banking crisis that threatens to renew fresh calls for a breakup of the world's largest economic trade bloc, the EU. Currently Italian banks are holding a monumental 360 billion of soured debt on their balance sheets with little to help free up bankers ability to deal with it. Much of the focus has been turned on the world's oldest bank, Monte dei Paschi, who seemingly looks like the weakest link in a long line of exposed institutions.    
Looking past the calamitous state of affairs, one aspect remains the chief detriment in the destruction of the European financial system which is the issue of low and negative interest rates, a sore topic for most banking institutions in Europe who have bemoaned it's place and suffered gravely as an inability to generate healthy income has been stunted by its protracted implementation.

In the case of Deutsche Bank, management had decided to offset the effects of a slim delivery of earnings through increased exposure in riskier assets, some of which included loans to the US energy sector. All it took was a collapse in oil prices for fear to be released amongst stockholders surrounding the capacity of Deutsche to absorb the losses incurred from non-performing loans when considering the little reserve's built up from bleak earnings.

With Italian banks it's a situation of institutions being in possession of inexpensive liquidity coupled with lowly sustained economic growth that caused government to use banks in averting a crisis. But as what we've seen evolving in the broader EU economy, increased monetary supply didn't lead to the deserved effect so many policymakers had wished for leaving many big name banks in a precarious position of holding onto debt that couldn't be paid for with the absolutely no prospect of growth in the future, only driving the fear of a mass default even closer.

The problem the world has now and more specifically the European Union is deciding what action will yield the least consequences because if we cast our minds on either objective we soon realise that there can be no relief from the pressure if the curtailment isn't dispensed in the other.The ECB is trying so desperately to get European consumers and manufacturers to produce value but in the same breathe pushing the stability of their financial system into jeopardy in reaching its goals.  

Wednesday, 31 August 2016

European Commission orders Apple Inc. to pay Republic of Ireland $13.5 billion

A heated debate has erupted between the Republic of Ireland and the European Commission after the latter revealed in an investigation that US tech giant Apple Inc. had abused it's status as a multinational corporation by booking its profits from European operations to its Irish based Apple Sales International company to unfairly benefit from the low tax rate charged by that country.

In concluding its investigation the European Commission ruled that Apple Inc underpaid $13.5 billion to the Irish ficus and ordered the California based tech company to pay the tax bill. Both the government of Ireland and Apple have expressed their intention to appeal the ruling.

Although a staggering amount, the implications of such a ruling relating to the taxation of large multinational corporations using countries like Ireland as a haven to pay less tax within its operations in the European Union could shift the playing fields in favour of fairness at the risk of a substantial divestment from these firms in the region.    

The argument for enforcing the ruling has won over many individuals who feel the necessity in shifting the tax burden away from citizens and onto entities who have a far greater ability to generate incomes than the masses. This comes at a time when questions around the integrated sustainability of the European Union mounts with debt piles accumulating at alarming rates.

But some critics say the EU is playing a dangerous game in chasing companies for unpaid taxes for short term gains whilst forgetting the wider impacts that will affect the economic state of play in the long term.

In this case both the Irish government and Apple have stated the relationship between them has mutually benefited both parties by providing employment and economic value creation for Ireland as well as a gateway into European territories for Apple to sell its products.

But is it enough to accept gains in economic value generation in exchange for tax breaks?
If speaking in the context of Ireland as a country on its own, it could very well be prosperous but the fact of the matter is Ireland is one piece in an integral puzzle that all adds up to form a free market which we know as the European Union where countries adopt a common currency yet still have a considerable degree of control over their sovereignty.

Enacting a country's right to elect a tax regime means a level of discretion when setting an appropriate rate to charge those being taxed whether it be individuals or companies. This translates into many different tax rates charged throughout the European Union thus creating a competitiveness in attracting foreign investment to its shores.

Apple was fully in its right to take advantage of the tax rate offered to it by Ireland even if it says it hadn't negotiated special terms in paying over its fair share. Sovereignty hasn't been surrendered although Ireland needs to abide by the rules imposed on it by the EU to stay inside.

But how consistent are those rules?

If truly committed to enforcement we could probably assume Greece would've been evicted out of the trade bloc long before the political chaos erupted onto the street of Athens. We could also say the propensity to stay within Europe for the UK could've been avoided had it not been for the lapse of security detail on European borders that compromises citizens safety.

Europe's big push to coerce member nations to give up their sovereignty is failing to convince nations of its worth if a common currency free market agreement hasn't worked. This is just another example of the EU's attempt to create fairness in how it sees it but neglects to take into account the different political will and beliefs that occur in each nation.  

It's highly unlikely it'll succeed in proving its case in this matter and will continue to create a divergence in tax rates charged amongst member nations that'll ultimately prove the concept of a united Europe is doomed to fail.  

Friday, 26 August 2016

Are EU economic indicators a true reflection of Europe?

It's fair to say the questions of doubt over Eurozone leaders ability to steer the free economic zone clear of the dangers has been spoken ad nauseam from critics who insist the stark differences in ideology amongst member nations would lead to a break up. We've already seen the United Kingdom hold the first referendum asking its citizens to decide whether they wish to stay or leave the Eurozone Agreement.

But behind this current backdrop swirling through market sentiment is a tattered past littered with political discontent that's driven the major players within the European bloc to show face in light of market fears when divorce seems imminent. Needless to say each crisis produces an element of inconclusive resolve that's so much needed in finding a concrete solution around long term sustainability.

However the survival of this doomed currency union has only been kept alive with the aid of artificial economic stimulus in the form of a loose monetary policy involving consecutive rounds of quantitative easing that's only achievement being the presence of excess liquidity in the economy with hardly any uptick in activity.      
The existing trend surrounding consumer confidence between the two biggest economies in the Eurozone, namely France and Germany, leaves many wondering how this indicator continues to defy logic besides the region being in perpetual crisis.

Although its important to note that the figures presented in the chart above have an oscillating nature by moving between negative and positive values with the position of the overall Eurozone consumer confidence index lying below zero indicating some degree of pessimism, the explicitly seen uptrend in both these charts leaves more questions than answers.

Wednesday, 6 July 2016

The next EU crisis; Italy's banking system

Just as the heightened fear and uncertainty reached frightening levels after the British referendum to exit the EU, it appears the event has indirectly influenced a trigger of a fresh crisis concerning Italian banks. Although Italy's banking system has been under strain for some time, the markets shifted focus away from a potentially devastating financial implosion has made the likelihood of such occurrence edge closer to happening.

And if you thought the European circus of politics couldn't entertain you anymore than it has, a regulation passed by the European Commission preventing member governments from bailing out ailing banking institutions is going to have dire consequences on the strength of the union if it cannot be overlooked.

Effectively the EU wants creditors to suffer from losses made by the banking institution, a term referred to as bailing in, instead of allowing governments to mop up the mess. If the EU were to succeed in upholding such policy it could mean funders aiding the banks with credit to generate loans would now be less convinced to provide financing facilities as well as cause a collapse of the entire Italian banking system if continued signs of financial stability erosion isn't plugged.

It should be said that a figure of 17% has been bantered around as a measure of the amount of loans that are considered "soured" or "bad", meaning an unlikeliness of being recovered which equates to roughly 360 billion in loans that cannot be paid!!!

Moving on to the economic dynamics that would lessen the severity of a mass default, lack of any confidence can be found when considering that the Italian economy has grown underneath the 1% band for far too long to shine any hope on the matter. Some analysts have cited the inadequate depreciation in the Euro versus other major currencies has made Italian goods & services more expensive when compared to its counterparts giving impetus to calls from nationalist parties for an exit out of the EU agreement.
That reality became much more real after the British referendum which not only put the final nail in the coffin of Euro optimists but also feted the grievances among citizens of Europe. Inasmuch as politicians in the region might find diplomatic and flexible solutions to devilishly avoid evidence proving closer integration a mass failure, the full effects being felt by the ordinary folk on the street has become so insurmountable that its caused a revolution of opinion.

What was once seen as beneficial is now seen as thieving sovereignty if agreeing to generalised policy that might stand in one country but has no place in another.

Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi will have to decide whether he should followed the prescribed rules set out by the EU commision or ignore them and face the consequences of the trade bloc but inevitably save his nation's banking system from collapse.

The EU's lack of flexibility over this simply enforces the notion of drawing out extreme cases where convention is disregarded and rules firmly stated instead of dealing with the issue at hand. This only serves to weaken the EU and strengthen the case of Euro-Skeptics who are convinced that this will all come crashing down.

Italy can't succeed economically if their banking system is placed in such a poor state that it drawdowns confidence in them.

Wednesday, 29 June 2016

The EU will inevitably concede to keep the UK happy

In the aftermath of Brexit, financial markets seemed to have recovered relatively well considering the shock that was afforded to them after the referendum vote drew a heavy blow on many British politicians reputations after exuding confidence in the public accepting revised policies with the European Union that had been markedly improved during negotiations between prime minister David Cameron and EU leaders in February.

Needless to say the reform the electorate were looking for wasn't enough to satisfy their approval which they expressingly shown in last week's referendum that has place the proverbial cat amongst the pigeons leaving British politicians baffled over the results.

The empty void that's filling the political space in Britain at the moment will have a devastating effect on economic policies going forward with much of the attention being placed on finding resolution with the EU in terms of the UK's departure from the common market if and when it happens. As a result the likelihood of the economy falling into recession has become almost certain.

Not only will it fell down the economic fibre's that provide for a steady flow of activity but it will also impair the outlook of the Pound as many will expect the weak footing the British economy now finds itself in exacerbated by the possibilities of severed trade relations with the EU.  
Belief is siding with the conviction that politicians aren't willing to allow Britain to exit from the EU but rather use the vote to hold the European parliament ransom in an effort to obtain further concessions. If this happens to turn out the way it does it may become either a defining moment for the trade bloc or another disaster to add to the list of expanding mishaps that are wreaking havoc with their resurrections.

And as much as the EU attempts to stand in solidarity to show a brave face to the public and preventing to showcase some seriousness in their commitment to go along with the decision, they know fully well that the consequences of such a move has the power to unravel years of construction.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel's comments that there is no way back for the UK is flawed if we were to judge the EU's action when it came to enforcing penalties against Greece for failing to service its debt on the prescribed date and then dangled defiantly in front of its fellow members the protestation over austerity measures.

Although short term positive outcome was found, it was simply another let off from years of the same action that only serves to prolong the outrageousness of it all. Nothing makes the situation of Brexit any different from the rest of the other discretions made by members which is why we'll see the EU come to the party and give to Britons what is wanted, a control of immigration and the free movement of labour.

Friday, 24 June 2016

Brexit; What's the state of play right now?

One of the crucial lessons you'll ever learn when participating in financial markets is complacency is often caught on the wrong side of expectation. This is what many woke up to find this morning after the British public elected to leave the EU sending shockwaves throughout world markets who up until yesterday believed the "Remain" camp had done enough to secure a victory.

I'll be the first to admit that my intuition told me the possibilities of the UK leaving the EU was largely unlikely but I do believe that my opinion wasn't far off from the markets expectation in the midst of a global selloff felt today.

If financial market participants believed that they fully understood the psyche of the British voter or even that of a European voter this morning's shock decision has reminded them they're very wrong. It's as if there's a disconnect between what politicians in the EU are saying and what's really happening on the ground with the latter proving more serious in their convictions than the former.  
Where to from here?

David Cameron's campaign to convince the British public of staying with the EU has irrevocably failed along with his reputation to lead the country forward forcing him to make a decision to step down from his role as prime minister that'll happen in October with no mentions of who might take over. The obvious candidate would be the current chancellor of exchequer George Osborne however this won't be a firm certainty with the Conservative Party reeling from split lines in support of Cameron's campaign.

One critic that stood out boldly was former Mayor of London Boris Johnson who added weight to the "Leave"camp that's successfully resulted in the desired outcome for their campaign but not without longer term implications for UK's leading political party.

Cameron's decision to stay on until the Conservative Party Conference was strategically link with saving the image of the party who did itself no favours holding such a vote that's ended up dividing the party instead of uniting it. It could also suggest that Osborne might not fancy himself sitting in Number 10 lamenting the defeat whilst preparing the UK for life after the EU considering he strongly favoured "Remain".

This all but guarantees Boris Johnson an open door to take over as prime minister should he want to which would be confirmed in his own decision to stand down as Mayor of London to concentrate his attention of campaigning for the "Leave" vote that's given him incredible momentum to snatch up Britain's highest political position.

But it won't be without its own problems with the party divided, the prospects of the future uncertain and the opposition rearing to take full advantage of the vulnerable state of the ruling party's woes.

Reconsidering Investment

Businesses in the UK will definitely be reconsidering their geographical location now that all ties between Britain and the EU are to be severed. The district served as an entry into Europe together with the benefit of operating in Pounds rather than Euros, producing a currency advantage if the Pound was weak.

They've come to rely on a significant amount of demand stemming from the EU region that'll now be subject to tighter border controls, import tariffs as well as delays in delivery all making matters complicated when they should be easier.

Needless to say the British public have come to recognise the grave risks becoming apparent in the EU with issues such as Greece austerity not being properly addressed, the Syrian refugee crisis benignly out of control and an insurgence of ISIS terrorism threatening to national safety.

Possibly the biggest risk of the Britain staying was the implosion of the Eurozone which seems to be drawing closer with every fresh unattended economic calamity. You could say perhaps Britons have voted to shield themselves from an inevitable crash when it does occur, a view that's not distant but possibly a huge risk to bank on given the importance of it's relevance and relations with the EU.