Monday, 19 September 2016

Is the Fed's action a catalyst to monetary policy normalisation?

This week see's both the Bank of Japan and US Federal Reserve divulging the progress of their respective monetary policies with the market leaning on expectations of a steady advancement of a dovish undertone in the months ahead as many of the developed nations central banks battle to flex it's economic muscle in moving activity forward.

But with the Fed's policymakers insistence of a interest rate hike occurring within the last two meetings of the year, the market is growing skeptical of any such actions as its counterparts remain committed to immersing their economies with "free money" in a bid to shield them from deflation placing the Fed in a predicament where it stands to decouple policy alignment by implementing an opposing strategy than it's peers.  

The perpetuate notion of the central bank's delaying the inevitable and effectively stretching out monetary policy longer than would be seen as plausible in the normal course of a business cycle continues to spill over into current thinking amongst policy makers with many assuming the hindrance of such actions being brought about to appease market valuations.
However the longer the Federal Reserve's holds up marching forward with interest rates, the less credible the inferences made from statements become and the less likely the market will find comfort in finding a voice of reason when dire consequences take hold.

Alternatively it could ignore the warning signs and impose interest rate hikes on the global economy but it could come with the cost of having to take the blame for throwing the entire financial system into disrepute by upending the ambivalent calm that lies in the market which doesn't conform to the thought of sharing the responsibility in an age of globalisation.  

Either way the Fed is stuck between two evils of which the decision will ultimately come down to choosing the one with lesser impact, but it won't take away from the necessary action of departing from the thought of monetary infinity.  

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