Friday, 1 July 2016

Do negative yields call for bold new economic policy?

An emerging topic that's gaining traction of late is the tremendous shift seen in developed nations bond rates with some nations sovereign debt trading at negative yields, a world first. The ever expanding debt load that's fallen below zero yield has begun consolidating after initially bulging outwards at an alarming pace but could be fuelled further if investors search for positive return is exacerbated by the enormous demand for both US Treasuries and UK Gilts.

As of today the US 10 Year Treasury yield recorded an all time low as buyers stormed through sellers demands as fears from Brexit flood the market with worry and the outlook for the interest rate environment drifted away from expectancy of normalisation after a lengthy period near zero, a once thought lower bound of rationality.  

Stocks are overstretched and have been for a while considering the previous quantitative easing measures that had were in place for some time which prompted companies to take advantage of the low cost of borrowing to repurchase stock in the open market. Although the effects of this helped extend the bull market by an extra year or two the party soon came to an end when the taps turned off and earnings were suppose to continue their growth.

This hasn't happened, in fact earnings are fading fast along with the global economy that can't find the right footing to leverage the mounds of debt created to act as stimulus.

The US Federal Reserve divergent plan to act in a different manner to its developed nation counterparts is a far greater mission than had been expected which is why investors foresee it departing from this policy stance and reverting back to its old habits of printing money till the cows come home.

Why is this all bad?

Simply because the world cannot function on the perpetual money creating scheme that has so many politicians fixated with in an effort to cover up their own flaws. We've entered a new era of economics and the need to find policies that branch off from convention yet address the evolutionary problems that constantly grow as year go by cannot be without fail.

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