Friday 22 July 2016

Are the markets as "resilient" as Draghi says?

ECB's president Mario Draghi struck a soft tone when talking about the impacts of Brexit yesterday saying the central bank was of the view that financial markets had acted "resilient" in the face of incredible headwinds created by it but conceded the bank could only tell of the real damage at its next meeting to be held in September. Draghi reiterated that he was ready and able to use all the instruments available to him to ward off disruptions created by the event.

The irony of this comes in the article I posted yesterday surrounding comments made by Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda where he explicitly told a radio interviewer that the probabilities of floating the concept of "helicopter money" weren't possible and needed to revive Japan's sagging economy.

Inasmuch as I'm of the belief that measures such as these merely make a small problem even bigger, there's no hiding from the fact it's created the situation we deal with at the moment.
Markets didn't rally after Brexit because they thought the prospects of a separation between the United Kingdom and the European Union would bring about a stronger outcome, they did so based on the expectation of central banks natural inclination towards reverting to stimulus measures when the sad state of the global economy peeks through the cracks of policymakers rhetoric.

If this be the case then Draghi's comments regarding the "resilient" spirit of financial markets after Brexit cannot be taken at face value but in the context with the action that's driving valuation higher than they should be, the very policy he advocates as a measure to unshackle deflation that's arrested economic growth in the region but with little evidence to prove effectiveness.

A frighten trend of monetary policymakers following in the footstep of their bureacratic government counterparts of choosing to ignore the problem long enough to think it'll disappear only to be shaken awake when crisis hits is a reminder that those in charge don't necessarily possess the right solutions to the problem.

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