Wednesday 28 October 2015

Top Tweets Today: 28/10/2015

Ever wondered if you'll ever reach the height of success only few traders can say they've achieved by becoming profitable? Well to be frank I think it's a long road for any person to reach that and provided you put in the time and stay committed to the cause you will eventually see the results.

I found this tweet posted by Steve Burns that perfectly sums up what it feels like once you've reached your goal...I'll leave you to think about it...  
We've seen a good degree of consolidation occur in oil prices after a hard knock led the commodity to fall over 50% in just under a year. The technical patterns have all the characteristics of consolidation but the real question now is where to from here?

If you consider the facts in front of us, the price lies below before the 200 and 50 SMA which does push the bias in favour of the bears. This stat by Charlie Bilello shows how the current price being below the 200 SMA has registered the longest streak under that mark since 1984. I think that is significant and given the oversupply is being driven by producers I do feel that things still have to play themselves out before I could feel confident in seeing oil return to it's highs once again.
Going into today I was somewhat weary of the position to take as is the case most of the times around important economic events come into focus. Taking into account the massive rally we've seen off this year's lows it's not  hard to think that things could cool off before we start seeing any significant moves.

Everyone knows one of Warren Buffet's famous quotes "Be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy". The chart below shows exactly like and is provided by CNNMoney and unlike the most followed Fear Index, the VIX which takes into account the price of options, this indicator uses 7 factors to compute an outcome namely; Safe haven demand, stock price breadth, stock price strength, put and call options, market volatility, market momentum and junk bond demand.

By combining all these together you get a sense of what the Street really feels like at the moment and I'd have to say I would agree with the Greed bias  after we saw that great run. But will the Fed help the bears gain the edge of the bulls tonight after Janet Yellen presents the Fed's verdict?
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