Tuesday 8 November 2016

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump ... who's it going to be?

As the world braces themselves for US election fanfare over the next 24 hours analysts have been hard at work trying to decipher the reaction financial markets might incur after the announcement of results are made on early Wednesday morning. So much has been said by both candidates in the build up of today's historic vote which makes the possibilities endless when attempting to predict a scenario.

Let's start with the favourite to win Hillary Clinton; With a wealth of political experience Mrs Clinton has all the attributes required to effectively lead the United States of America however not without scandal following close by. The personal emails sent by Clinton via a private server whilst in office as the Secretary of State has raised questionable doubts over her integrity in leading her country.  

Be it as it may her candidacy offers the better experience when compared to her opponent Donald Trump who may have decades of business acumen behind him yet lacks the niceties of operating in the political sphere.

Her marriage to Bill, the former President of the United States and their subsequent political dream team has meant the Clinton's have considerable stay power to influence policymakers within the Democrat's Party as well as being seen as a dynasty in American politics. This has also translated to a much broader scope globally where Bill is seen in a favourable light in most countries around the world.

Investors would probably see more certainty in a Clinton victory after featuring in current US President Barack Obama's first administration as the Secretary of State, with many expecting the same type of policy to be used by her if elected. She's said on previous occasions drug manufacturers and financial houses would receive more scrutiny under her presidency which many average Americans have applauded.

But more importantly than regulation of the economy, investors will want to see what action will be taken to help the US economy stray away from the bleakness of growth it's experienced since 2008. If Clinton's policy is anything like Obama's it's fair to say the priority of the economy will inevitably take a backseat although to be frank Clinton's campaign has focused largely on the upliftment of those found in difficult positions within the economy as opposed to sending a message of goodwill.  
The outsider and proverbial loud mouth Donald Trump; Having made and lost his fortune several times in real estate, Trump's celebrity status has always been seen as a face of the American Dream of prosperity through hard work and determination. His appearance on the reality TV series, The Apprentice, helped define his character as a no-nonsense, straight talking sharp shooter that's often landed him in hot water on his campaign trail.  

His threat to build a wall between the US and Mexico and insisting on the latter to pay for it created a stir amongst the public with some quarters saying it showed Trump as a racist with a lack of views on foreign diplomacy which proved to be his achilles heel throughout the campaign.

As much as Trump may have accused the media of distorting information, he has continuously failed to lay down concrete policy that'll make less uncertainty. Instead his flip flopping on crucial matters has seen him hire and fire a number of campaign managers in order to inspire the right message, hardly the position any future president would want to find themselves in whilst dealing with defining situations.  

But the true attraction to Trump's campaign to the White House has been his gung-ho approach to dealing with issues that seemingly fall foul to political bureaucracy, a common theme found in the current administration suggesting a growing sense of discord amongst the public.

If elected Trump would likely shake up the US economy by looking to find efficiency rather than kicking the can down the road however his success in doing that will depend on the foundation of how he presents his proposals of change. If we have a repeat of what's been seen in questions over his foreign policy his likely to fail at every turn.

His foreign policy would promote protectionism of US products and services which could cause retaliation from other advanced nations and ultimately dismantle globalisation. If this were to be the case then the debate around Britain's exit from the European Union would have a strong footing to spring from with the US supporting it.

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